Thursday, February 22, 2018
4:30 PM to 5:40 PM
Indiana University: South Bend
“First Fired, First Hired? Business Cycles and Immigrant Labor Market Transitions”
The paper captures economic fluctuations by measuring deviations in local demand from national economic circumstances and examines monthly transitions among employment, unemployment, and non participation. Immigrants are found to be first fired and first hired as business cycle worsens, and the aggregate unemployment gap is caused by immigrants’ higher rates in the unemployment entry flow. Tests for heterogeneity show that low skilled immigrants are more vulnerable to the business cycle. Tests of the structural change from the 2007 Great Recession show that since its start there was a secular shift in the transition probabilities that would affect all workers negatively, but the cyclical volatility was mitigated for immigrants in the post-Great Recession period.